Thursday, July 15, 2010

foreclosure homes





The information is based on April data and is therefore consistent with
the CS report. Both New York and Florida are at the top of the list of
states with the longest period between initial default and final
foreclosure. For the nation as a whole the number of days has nearly
doubled over the past few years. NY and Florida are 31% and 21% higher
than the national average.



This is not a coincidence. This is cause and affect in action. I live in
metro NYC and own property in S.Fl. I see what is going on. There are
many middle to upper price homes on the market that have not seen an
offer for more than a year. A good number of these are already in
default. The borrowers are underwater and there is nothing they can do. A
HAMP style ReFi accomplishes nothing. I know people in both areas who
have contacted their lender and have been told to come up with an
acceptable short sale or deed in lieu transaction. The borrowers have
been told by the bank(s) that if they do not cooperate they will have
their credit wrecked and be subject to default judgments. So the
borrower puts the house on the market and hopes for an offer that is
acceptable to the lender. In the mean time they stay in the home for up
to two years and pay very little (if anything) on the old mortgage.
There is substantial evidence that these people are buying IPhones and
going on vacation with the money they are saving by not paying the debt.
Some thoughts:



-This “extend and pretend” at its worst.



-The lenders will not let this continue forever. The day of reckoning is
coming. It well be felt in all of the states. It will be felt hardest
in the states that have the highest days to foreclosure numbers.



-As a former owner is foreclosed they will be forced to rent. Given that
few in this category are paying any meaningful amount of their current
monthly mortgage it is likely that they will have less disposable income
post foreclosure.



-My conclusions:





(A) RE in Fl and NY is going to tank this fall.



(B) Consumer demand for things from clothes, gadgets and leisure is
going to suffer an out sized decline.



(C) The extend and pretend policy is catching up with us. This approach
was a “buy some time” idea in the hope that things would work out. They
have not worked out. We are about to pay the price for that failure.



If we revert to more traditional levels in the ratio of initial default
and foreclosure we are going to hit an economic wall. This is just one
more thing stacking up against us.








Foreclosure Mediation Programs Succeed Across The Country — Will Pawlenty Give Minnesota’s A Chance?


Today, across the country, mortgage mediation programs aimed at helping struggling homeowners stay in their homes are getting underway. Programs are launching in Maryland, as well as Florida’s 6th and 10th judicial circuits — encompassing Pasco, Pinellas, Hardee, Highlands, and Polk counties — while Cook County, Illinois is beginning a huge round of outreach for its burgeoning program.


In all, “the number of jurisdictions with foreclosure mediation programs is nearly double the number a year ago, with jurisdictions in 21 states now offering foreclosure mediation or negotiation programs.” Not on this list, however, is Minnesota, where Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) saw fit to veto a program last year.


The Minnesota state senate recently passed the bill again, sending it to the state House, so Pawlenty could very well get a second shot soon. And there’s simply no reason for him to oppose the program, as mediation — during which a bank meets face-to-face with a borrower, often in the presence of a judge and housing advocates, to try and forge a mortgage modification or other arrangement that prevents a foreclosure — is one of the most successful methods of helping struggling borrowers stay in their homes.


Connecticut’s mediation program, for instance, has kept 60 percent of its borrowers out of foreclosure. Philadelphia’s success rate is also 60 percent, while Nevada claims an 85 percent success rate:



About 80 percent of homeowners at risk of losing their homes don’t engage in any efforts to negotiate with their lender. And those who do so on their own often run into a bureaucratic mess, including hours on hold, lost records, and customer service representatives who know nothing about the borrower’s situation. Mediation helps to ensure that situations like that don’t happen.


“These new protections empower our fellow Marylanders, putting them on a more equal footing with mortgage companies that too often can’t be bothered to pick up the phone before beginning a foreclosure proceeding against a Maryland family,” said Governor Martin O’Malley (D). And lest Pawlenty think this is a purely partisan issue, it has also won the praise of Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT). “Clearly, mediation is an effective tool homeowners can use to ward off foreclosure,” she said. “This program is a beacon of hope for hard-pressed homeowners and a real alternative for lenders.”


In mediation, there’s no requirement for a lender to accommodate a borrower, but it’s often the case that preventing a foreclosure is in the best financial interest of both the borrower and the lender. As CAP’s Andrew Jakabovics and Alon Cohen wrote, “the simple act of participating in mediation consistently yields solutions short of foreclosure that are acceptable to both sides.” Hopefully, should the Minnesota legislature do the right thing and create a program, Pawlenty will allow it to stand.






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